Disappointment in San Diego, Hops in the Tank

How expectations can topple from one season to the next. The Hops were expected to improve on their 2018 season based on improved pitching and a sterling core of hitters led by Kyle Reader and Terrence Sepkiechler.

Midway through 2019, the Hops are beyond the collapse stage, mired deeply at the bottom of the standings and the power rankings. What went wrong? What is going right? How can the tailspin be turned around?

What went wrong: Perhaps the assumption that young players would automatically improve, blame that can be clearly placed on management. This level of arrogance is not uncommon, but the result has been disastrous for SD.
• Injuries-Kyle Reader, Terrence Sepkiechler and Ed Downing are all on the disabled list for extended periods of time. That means the top two hitters and closer are down for the count. This exposed the lack of major league depth that has constantly plagued the Hops. In addition, Justin Davis is just back after missing over half the season so far. Dan Savage came up and has hit admirably, but is part of a deeper issue…
• Defense-Savage is one of the worst centerfielders, and Avila one of the worst third basemen in the league. The Hops are compromised defensively by the injuries, leading to…
• Pitching-A team that relies on young pitchers must have good defense, and San Diego is one of the more troubled defensive teams, leading to a return to the 2017 depths of pitching. There is some hope that the second half of the season will show improvement, as management is moving pieces around to get better defense to support the young arms.

What went right: The catching platoon of Antonio Rojas and Chris Morton has done a fantastic job offensively, and considering the challenge of handling a young pitching staff, has done quite well. Savage is hitting, Avila is hitting, Davis, now returned is hitting, and Shannon Chase and Jonathan Barnes are doing an excellent job sharing 1b and DH, all over or near .300, and Joe Frost, obtained in the trade for Kaneko, is showing signs of offense missing prior to his moving to San Diego.

The minor leagues have some prospects, and the Double A Jacksonville team is leading its league, 19 games above .500

Fixes: Patience, as the real team gets off the DL, the Hops will improve. Maybe swinging one more trade, thinking towards the future. There are some excellent prospects making their way through the system, not just outfielders, so there are good times ahead.

Meanwhile, this is a team that is struggling to find an identity for its pitching and defense that can support its hitting. The stadium configuration is aligned with defense, but there has been a lack of same due to injuries, so the prospects for the future are still positive.

2019: Season in Review

Hops Then and Now

Emerson Stiles

Mr. Stiles enjoyed a memorable career pitching for the Mercer Owls and Pleasant River Coots establishing team and league records for the Pastime League. Since his retirement, he has covered baseball as both an award-winning journalist and commentator.

As the San Diego fans whet their whistle with some imperial suds provided in one of the numerous owner sponsored beer and barbecue fests, this writer has noticed an extraordinary optimism spilling over the commemorative pint mugs with the hop-infused foam. Why, it was just last year that this same Southern California franchise barely missed losing one-hundred games, a scan improvement over a team that in 2017 lost a forgettable 105 contests with a bloated payroll topping $100 million smacks. How did this inebriate team manage to swim upstream in their tough division to get within shouting distance of playoffs with a sparkling 88-74 record in 2019 on a mere $72 million payroll, and what do the Hops have in store for the future, now that they’ve traded the winningest hurler, Ted Mills, of their most recent success? To answer that question, and perhaps raise a few more, pull up a barstool here at the Toronado, and share a Pliny or two while I tell a tale of fate and fortune.

In 2017, the team stars were Miguel Angel Ortiz, 1b/DH, George Sanders, 1b/DH, Mike Johnson, RF, and outfielders Bill Turner and Taylor Thompson. All of them garnered over 400 plate appearances and hit pretty well, but not a one had a prominent role in 2019. Ortiz was traded, Sanders released, Johnson retired and Turner and Thompson, though in the prime of their careers, are more suited for reserve roles if on the 40-man roster at all.

On the mound, the 2017 contingent was led by Elvis Sharp, now departed, while Ted Mills, Kaz Kanno and Luis Sandoval all lost in double figures, compiling a less than stellar 45 loss mark amongst the three of them. 2019 saw Mills turn his career around, and Kanno and Sandoval showed marked maturity. Perhaps the “building character” aspect of getting pummeled on a regular basis has some merit.

Here is a position-by-position exposé of the current Hop roster, with some flashbacks to that nadir of futility that was 2017.

Catcher:

Antonio Rojas broke out with a .292 average while slugging 20 homers while being selected as a first-time Gold Glove honoree. He shared time behind the plate with Chris Morton who looked great in a backup role with a .312 average while also handling some 1b and DH duties. They traded for a very good reserve when Morgan Cairns came over in the Mills deal. The outlook here is great, and with all three under 30, are set for awhile. Rojas and Morton were on the 2017 team, getting experience, but Dorian Knight, a defensive liability, unlike the current corps, had more at bats than the two reserves combined.

First Base:

Ortiz is long gone, and his heir-to-be, Dwayne Sparks, was relegated all the way down to AA in 2019. Instead, an astute free-agent pick up of Shannon Chase (.838 OPS, 26 HR) when healthy, a timely move bringing up long-time minor leaguer, Jonathan Barnes (.297, .860 OPS, over 400 AB), led to very productive time with better gloves than Ortiz. This is one of the deeper positions in the system, and looks good for years to come.

Second Base:

Middle infield has been a sore spot in San Diego for years, but has finally solidified with the fine fielding Hirotsugu Kaneko, who also hit a potent .307 with a .380 OBP. When he was hurt, Jorge Castillo and Ichizo Sato filled in well with the glove and showed that they were not automatic outs at the plate. If Kaneko stays healthy, this is a plus for the franchise. The Hops may look for youth here should he again exhibit a tendency to lose time. This is a huge improvement on 2017 when Charlie Jackson, Mike Lamb, Tim LeBlanc and company hit around .225, and seemed to field about as well.

Third Base:

In 2017, Mario Vasquez ended his career playing only a dozen or so games, and retiring essentially at the All-Star break. By 2019, Terrence Sepkiechler took the position and wrung it out to dry, hitting a robust .316 with 24 dingers, and filling in at every other infield position if needed. He has shown consistency with over 100 RBIs this season and last, and at only 26, the future looks bright. Watch for Hai-Dong Joe in the minors, who may be the shortstop of the future if Sepkiechler stays at the hot corner.

Shortstop:

Takanori Higashi started close to 100 games at SS for the Hops, but like his double-play partner, Kaneko, suffered injuries that limited his playing time. When he was in, he was very, very good (.279). When he was out, a similar depth issue cropped up as the same cast of keystone characters filled in at short, leading to some consistency issues around the horn. The aforementioned Joe is the probable future at the position, but look for a Hops draft choice or trade to shore up the reserves. Gerard Leeder is a four star prospect according to Hops scouts, but at least three years away from the big leagues once he gets out of the International Complex.

Outfield:

This is the real new heart of the Hops, with a left to right with a sojourn into DH and other roles, makeup of Badry Makaev [Gold Glove] (.333/.377/.468, 17 HR), Carlos Avila (.328/.368/.457), Justin Davis (.300/.399/.469 14 HR), Hubert Muñoz (.256/.307/.425) and the star of the group [injured until mid-2020], Kyle Reader (.352/.424/.466, 112 runs). There is no comparison to 2017 here: Johnson, Caldwell and Turner/Thompson were the rangers then. Thompson and Turner are still in the system, and Dan Savage and Dan Lopez are stars in the making. Look for a deal from this level of depth, as great glove and .860 OPS hitter, Dan Rodriguez, could only manage 200 at bats for the major league team.

Rookie, Mal Tosewell [July 2014; Painter X3] experimenting with using only one brush variant, the Short Oil

Starting Pitching:

The ERA went from 5.97 in 2017 to 5.06 in 2019, and is going to get better. Henry McGowan went 13-10 with a 4.83 ERA in his first full season, and is just hitting his stride. Bill Baker won 14 in support of Mills’ team-leading 18. Mills will be replaced by JR Murphy and star-in-the-making, Mal Tosewell who debuted with a 3-0 record, 3 plus ERA and 19 K in 33 innings. With Georgie Levin tearing through the minor leagues, this could be a strong rotation (Baker, Tosewell, McGowan, Murphy and Pueblo/Levin) for years to come. This is a far cry from that forgettable 6 ERA rotation of 2017.

Bullpen:

Ed “Crime Spree” Downing improved from 25 saves in 2017 to 38 saves in 2019, with an ERA that went from 4.65 to 3.04. His support of “Oro” Mata, Bob Lortie, and company is an improvement over 2017, but still has room to improve even more with one of the following; Barrett, Downs, Reyes or Sandoval, needing to step up their game.

Outlook:

After a few more pints, the outlook couldn’t be better. Infield depth, bullpen and starting pitching are of some concern, but not so bad that the Hops need to make a lopsided deal. Look for the San Diegans to move an outfield piece to stop up one or more of these gaps, and the draft to continue to produce the likes of Reader, Makaev and Tosewell. Who knows, the next craft beer could be a playoff special.

Emerson Stiles, your correspondent

Carlos Avila: Rookie Sensation

In one short year, Carlos Avila, the number one draft choice for the San Diego Hops in June, 2018, has been the AAA player of the week once, and named to the AAA All-Star team. Now, he has emerged as a savior in San Diego, replacing the injured star, Kyle Reader, in the outfield and at the plate. His stellar rise to prominence is no accident. He is a confident young man, his skills honed in an excellent college career. However, nobody expected his ability to handle major league pitching would be this swift.

A quick look at his stats:
In his first forty games, he has batted 166 times, mashing 52 hits, including five doubles and five home-runs. He has crossed the plate 17 times, while driving in 24. His OPS stands a lick over .800.

In the field, he has split time between third base and center field, with a bit more pressure showing with a ZER in slight negatives at both positions. The very bright Ohio native is well aware of his shortcomings, and can be seen before every game taking extra infield and outfield practice.

There is no doubt that San Diego would have dropped out of contention in a surprising September finish had Avila not been brought up to join Justin Davis, Badry Makaev and Terrence Sepkiechler atop the Hops' order.

Carlos Avila, CF/3b, San Diego Hops #29, Corel Painter x3; July 1, 2014

San Diego, State of the Art

Friends and foes alike, San Diego is a team that often looks like a wayward ship traversing the harbors of futility with occasional sunshine and fair winds. This season is somewhat of the latter, with incredible young outfielders performing like seasoned veterans (Reader/Makraev) and just enough pitching to survive (How is Ted Mills 14-4 with a 5.19 ERA?) while most arms are finding .500 about right in the BrewStade.

San Diego is making one last plea on the trade fronts:

Available:
The aforementioned Mills, Joe Barrett, Juan Jose Carbaja, Luis Sandoval, Mike Chase, Nat Downs, OF Daniel Rodriguez, OF Bryan Caldwell, IF Mike Land

Looking for draft choices or minor leaguers who are in the 2-3 star range, will package multiples

San Diego is in the years long throes of financial duress (remember giving up Ortiz?) and is still wallowing in slack attendance.

Come on down, try an Imperial IPA and let's talk…

Strong Season Opening

Dateline San Diego:

As the first third of the season winds up, San Diego finds itself in rarified air, sitting atop the LaRussa Division with a stellar 32-19 record. Decent pitching and exquisite hitting have fueled this rise, and local fans are hoping this is a long-term mark of the franchise.

Free agent pickup, 1b Shannon Chase, is one of the main reasons the Hops are hopping. With a team leading 11 homers and 48 rbis, he has solidified the middle of the batting order. Two young outfielders, Kyle Reader and Badry Makaev, are tagging the horsehide at a ridiculous clip, Makaev with an average of .364, and Reader clocking in at .322, just behind catcher Antonio Rojas' .327. Overall the team is third in the league in hitting at .308.

Pitchers are also contributing, starters are fifth in league ERA, and the bullpen leads the league. Mills, much maligned the last two seasons, is 7-1, while Downing leads the league in saves with 14.

Hopes are high in Hop land, and if all goes like the first third, a playoff spot is not unheard of.

Hopping Through the 40 man; 2018 wrapped into 2019

Hopping through the forty man roster, and beyond

Season wrap for 2018, and a look ahead to 2019

Badry Makaev, OF

The San Diego Hops plunged deep into the muck and mire in 2018, but it is hoped that some prime wort is still the result of the season as the Hops prepare for 2019. We’ll take a gander at the forty man roster, and see who in the minors might make inroads in the future.

Starting Pitching

Kaz Kanno and Lorenzo Pueblo started 64 games between them, and the results were mixed. Kanno, only 25, completed his third full season as a starter going 9-15 with a disturbing 5.90 ERA. He did log 198 innings, but he allowed almost two dingers a game. It is hoped he can revert to his 2017 form (4+ ERA) and cut down on the long ball. Pueblo in his first real chance in the rotation was surprisingly sturdy, logging 190 innings, and was the only starter to finish at .500 with his 12-12 record coupled with a 5.28 ERA. Ted Mills was the big disappointment, losing his starting job after compiling a 6-17 record with an ERA that soared over seven. He has gone 11-28 with a 7+ ERA since his rookie year in 2016 that looked so promising. Dave Lee, the 34 year old veteran of the rotation, was out due to injury most of 2017, and made a cameo appearance at the end of 2018. Perhaps his steadying demeanor will help the three youngsters, and the crop of new pitchers on the horizon. Others who made starts for the Hops in 2018 and who will battle for the fourth and fifth spots in the rotation with Mills include, José Lara, only 23 with a 100 mph fastball, Henry McGowan with his mix of nasty breaking stuff, Luis Sandoval, also 23, who is game but might be better suited to the bullpen, Jesus Feliciano, still a bit raw, 3-4 in 9 starts, and Steve Lawrence, 8-14 in his debut season. Lawrence is another breaking ball specialist with a big heart. Veteran Mike Chase made a few starts, but a two pitch repertoire is limited, though he has the stamina to go deep into a ballgame.

Mal Tosewell, the number one overall pick, was rushed to AAA and though beat around a bit, showed that his stuff is dynamic, clocking over 100 mph on a fastball that moves, and a first-rate splitter. He started 29 games in the minors, and might arrive in the bigs in 2019. Bill Baker went 5-1 before injuries halted his minor league campaign, and he has four plus pitches led by a 100 mph heater. Edgar Pérez played a swing role in AA, and is most likely bullpen bound. One of the intriguing names in the minors is Hisanobu Taniguchi who started 33 games in AA and finished with a 10-9 record. The scouts don’t like him a lot, but he wins. Jared Thornton was drafted with a lot of hype, but is stalled in AA giving up 50 more hits than IP. Jin-Song Cheung is only 18, but impressed many with his 19 starts in A. “Skates” Cheung is a talent to be watched but probably is not headed to the bigs until 2020 or beyond. Graeme Green is another teenager to keep an eye on. Veterans Mike Joyce, Paul O’Dell and Daryll Carnell are long past their prime and are unlikely to make an impact again in the big leagues.

Overall Grade: C-; future, B+

Relief Pitching

The San Diego bullpen has had some great seasons in the past, but 2018 was not one of them. Inconsistency plagued the San Diego pen. Look for a bounce back season in 2019, buoyed by some fine young arms. Stalwarts like Aurelio Mata fell on hard times with a deceptive 3.22 ERA, but allowing 100 hits in 80 innings. Closer Ed Downing notched 27 saves, but was involved in a lot of decisions that could have turned into victories. Joe Barrett spent his first full season in the bigs, and provided some excitement with 66 Ks in 70 innings, but added 47 walks to the mix. Phil Bernard was the most consistent out of the pen, as the lefty specialist struck out 97 in only 66 innings to manufacture a sterling 1.08 ERA. Ivan Garcia made his debut, and struck out 19 in 12 innings in September.

Beyond Garcia, and whoever does not make the starting rotation, there are some relievers in the minors worth mentioning. Ángel Reyes saved 15 games in his first full season in the San Diego minor league organization after an injury marred early professional career. Jun’ichi Toiguchi looked impressive in AAA appearing in 61 games. José Zamora looked great at three different minor league levels after signing as a minor league free agent. Jorge Román won the closer job at AA Jacksonville and saved 8 in only 19 innings. Kyuso Hara, only 17, was impressive in his Bethune debut at A, with 3 saves in 11 games.

Overall Grade: B-; future, A

Catching

Chris Morton and Antonio Rojas shared the catching chores, supplanting Dorian Knight as the regular Hops backstop. Rojas showed great pop with 18 round-trippers in only 344 at bats. Morton chimed in with an additional 8 HR. Both played more than adequate defense and Morton spent some time at 1b and DH as well. Though only 27, Knight’s defensive shortcomings are too much to overlook, and he will pinch hit and DH if he remains in San Diego. Bob Lockyer, part reward garnered in the Lou Cove trade, is the only other catcher on the 40 man roster. He is solid, but may not move much past AA.

Tom Stott in AAA had a cup of coffee with the Hops in 2016, and has a great glove. He hits left-handed, so may find a big league spot in the future. Arturo León in AA might have a big-league future. The lower minors and international signees are merely taking up roster spots at this point.

Overall Grade: B; future, C

First Base

The year after Miguel Ortiz was supposed to belong to Dwayne Sparks, but he did not look like “Angel” at all, and lost his job by the end of the year. Those who supplanted him were a pleasant surprise: Jonathan Barnes crushed 12 homers in under 200 at bats, and the aforementioned Carl Morton logged the most innings at first base, after Sparks, for the season.

Not a whole lot of future in the minor leagues at 1b. Kelly Myers, AAA Coronado, has big league power, but the rest of his offensive game is lacking. Jerry Gibbs at A Bethune might have a chance in the bigs, but is already 25.

Overall Grade: C; future, C-

Second Base

Versatility is the hallmark of the San Diego infield, with Kaneko, Sepkiechler, Land, Castillo, Sato, and Higashi all able to play multiple positions in the infield well. Hirotsugu Kaneko and rookie, Terrence Sepkiechler, platooned at 2b for most of 2018. Sepkiechler played the most, but Kaneko, who also played a lot of SS and 3b, was next up. Kaneko enjoyed career highs in hits, 160, and runs, 82. He was very dependable and consistent. Terrence was a very pleasant surprise both at the plate and in the field. Mike Land chipped in 8 HRs, and Jorge Castillo and Ichizo Sato contributed at the keystone as well. Both Kaneko, 27, and Sepkiechler, 25, are around for the long haul.

Tim LeBlanc at 30 in AAA, is a utility player at best going forward. Sato is great in the field and makes good contact, but has no power at all. Juan Moreno, 18, at AA Jacksonville shows promise in the middle infield as does Domingo Herrera, 24.

Overall Grade: B+; future B

Third Base

Terrence Sepkiechler made a tremendous splash in the big leagues after a brief 2017 taste. He played 160 games, hitting over .280 with 23 round-trippers and 101 RBIs. He was versatile afield logging the most innings at 3b, but also filling in at 2b, 1b and even SS. Kaneko and Higashi both spent time at the hot corner in 2018.

Hai Dong Joe, 21,at Bethune A for his debut pro season, will move up to AA in 2019. He is the future at the position probably moving Sepkiechler to 2b full time. Between Joe and the bigs, there is not a lot of 3b prospect. Former big leaguer Steve Cherry is now at A helping tutor the young phenom, Joe.

Overall Grade: B; future A

Shortstop

Takanori Higashi, along with Kaneko, is a steady glove, and .270 hitter. Like the rest of the middle infielders he is just reaching his prime at 27. He only made four errors in over 500 innings at short.

After a number of down years in the middle infield at the Hopyard, this is now one of the strongest cohorts on the team. Joe is a solid shortstop, so when he arrives there will be four very good players for three positions. Matt Davidson and Jeff Shelton are utility type players, but Joe is the future star of this infield.

Overall Grade: B+; future B+

Left Field

The San Diego outfield aged quickly, so a lot of high round draft choices went into the outer regions of the team. Youngsters in 2018 made quite an impressive display. In left, the big bopper obtained in the Ortiz trade was Justin Davis. He slugged 20 HRs, had great plate discipline, walking 80 times and only striking out 139 times, while hitting a solid .258. Look for him to improve as he was only 26. Rookie, Badry Makaev, made a startling debut, hitting .277 with an OPS of .826 in 200+ at bats. Both had solid gloves, good arms and sufficient range. Kyle Reader and Daniel Rodriguez are both excellent LFers, but spent 2018 in right and center for the most part.

Left field looks to be in good hands for quite some time with Davis and Makaev, but don’t count out minor leaguers like Tadayuki Yamaguchi who hit 20 HRs for SD in 2017, or Dan Savage, Teika Seki, Brian Austin or Wilbert Fritz, all five of whom play outfield at Coronado AAA. Tom Wyatt, Ben Wheeler, Michael Cook and Daniel Lopez are all potential major leaguer corner outfielders currently in Jacksonville AA, while Bethune A boasts Jeff Barraclough, Tom Cassidy, and Roy McDaniel, all with star capacity.

Overall Grade: A-; future A

Center Field

Bill Turner, when healthy, is a solid hitter, .315, stolen base threat, 134 career SB, and potential gold glove in center. When he was injured in 2018, Daniel Rodriguez came out of nowhere to take over the position and hit with authority; .277 with an .814 OPS, with 15 HRs and 33 EBH. Taylor Thompson also contributed though he slumped a bit in his soph season. Many of the corner OFers in San Diego can also man center, so there is a great deal of depth all around the outfield.

Carlos Ávila is already in AAA after being drafted in the first round, fourth overall, by San Diego. He can play all three OF positions, but profiles best in center with plus range and arm. He hits with authority, chocking up a 1.056 OPS in the final month of the season at AAA. Tokuhei Miyata shows promise in Bethune A and is only 17.

Overall Grade: B+; future A

Right Field

Bryan Caldwell was the incumbent going into 2018, but he was quickly passed by rookie sensation Kyle Reader who made the All-Star team, and showed he belonged with a spectacular second half. Reader, only 22, hit .312 with 177 hits, and 48 extra base hits. He was over 6+ in ZRE, only six errors and eight assists after having never played above AA. Caldwell is content with DH and occasional RF duty.

Many of the outfielders listed above are also solid RFers, so this position is in good hands for the forseeable future.

Overall Grade: A; future A

Team

San Diego must find more starting pitching in order to contend in the future. The other weak points are at first and catcher, but without pitching, this team is going nowhere. Look for them to trade some of the outfield depth, or infielders, for starting pitching.

Early Season San Diego

San Diego is off to a surprising strong start in its first full season sans Miguel Ortiz. The Hops have some new faces in the 2018 regular lineup, and in the pitching corps, so we take a look at the early additions and how they are faring.

Martinez (SF Bay Area-I had a screen printing business there in the 80's) native, Dwayne Sparks, has been taking most of the 1b presence with Ortiz traded. He is off to a very solid start, hitting .306 with 6 HR, .993 OPS, in his first 20 games.

Rookie Terrence Sepkiechler has already played all four infield positions while hitting close to .300 in his first taste of the big leagues. This is much more than expected from this fifth round draft choice in 2015.

Another first year player, Chris Morton, has logged 17 games at catcher, and three at 1b spelling Sparks. He is contributing both at the plate and afield.

Antonio Rojas, only 23, a defensive catcher, is off to his best offensive start with a .889 OPS.

Mike Land, also a rookie, is finding playing time in the infield and has looked solid afield, and not without a clue at the plate.

The outfield has two first-year players, Kyle Reader and Justin Davis, the latter acquired in the Ortiz deal. Both are smacking the ball at a .300+ clip with able defense.

The pitching staff has four regulars 25 or younger, starters Kanno, Mills and Sandoval, with Joe Barrett in the bullpen. In fact, only relievers Downs and Chase are over 30, while in the regular lineup, Caldwell and Sparks, just turned 31, are the two over 30.

The overall youth of the team is a major factor in their early success, and bodes well for the Hop future.