Tuesday, July 22, 2014

2019: Season in Review


Hops Then and Now
Emerson Stiles
Mr. Stiles enjoyed a memorable career pitching for the Mercer Owls and Pleasant River Coots establishing team and league records for the Pastime League. Since his retirement, he has covered baseball as both an award-winning journalist and commentator.

As the San Diego fans whet their whistle with some imperial suds provided in one of the numerous owner sponsored beer and barbecue fests, this writer has noticed an extraordinary optimism spilling over the commemorative pint mugs with the hop-infused foam. Why, it was just last year that this same Southern California franchise barely missed losing one-hundred games, a scan improvement over a team that in 2017 lost a forgettable 105 contests with a bloated payroll topping $100 million smacks. How did this inebriate team manage to swim upstream in their tough division to get within shouting distance of playoffs with a sparkling 88-74 record in 2019 on a mere $72 million payroll, and what do the Hops have in store for the future, now that they’ve traded the winningest hurler, Ted Mills, of their most recent success? To answer that question, and perhaps raise a few more, pull up a barstool here at the Toronado, and share a Pliny or two while I tell a tale of fate and fortune.

In 2017, the team stars were Miguel Angel Ortiz, 1b/DH, George Sanders, 1b/DH, Mike Johnson, RF, and outfielders Bill Turner and Taylor Thompson. All of them garnered over 400 plate appearances and hit pretty well, but not a one had a prominent role in 2019. Ortiz was traded, Sanders released, Johnson retired and Turner and Thompson, though in the prime of their careers, are more suited for reserve roles if on the 40-man roster at all.

On the mound, the 2017 contingent was led by Elvis Sharp, now departed, while Ted Mills, Kaz Kanno and Luis Sandoval all lost in double figures, compiling a less than stellar 45 loss mark amongst the three of them. 2019 saw Mills turn his career around, and Kanno and Sandoval showed marked maturity. Perhaps the “building character” aspect of getting pummeled on a regular basis has some merit.

Here is a position-by-position exposé of the current Hop roster, with some flashbacks to that nadir of futility that was 2017.

Catcher:
Antonio Rojas broke out with a .292 average while slugging 20 homers while being selected as a first-time Gold Glove honoree. He shared time behind the plate with Chris Morton who looked great in a backup role with a .312 average while also handling some 1b and DH duties. They traded for a very good reserve when Morgan Cairns came over in the Mills deal. The outlook here is great, and with all three under 30, are set for awhile. Rojas and Morton were on the 2017 team, getting experience, but Dorian Knight, a defensive liability, unlike the current corps, had more at bats than the two reserves combined.

First Base:
Ortiz is long gone, and his heir-to-be, Dwayne Sparks, was relegated all the way down to AA in 2019. Instead, an astute free-agent pick up of Shannon Chase (.838 OPS, 26 HR) when healthy, a timely move bringing up long-time minor leaguer, Jonathan Barnes (.297, .860 OPS, over 400 AB), led to very productive time with better gloves than Ortiz. This is one of the deeper positions in the system, and looks good for years to come.

Second Base:
Middle infield has been a sore spot in San Diego for years, but has finally solidified with the fine fielding Hirotsugu Kaneko, who also hit a potent .307 with a .380 OBP. When he was hurt, Jorge Castillo and Ichizo Sato filled in well with the glove and showed that they were not automatic outs at the plate. If Kaneko stays healthy, this is a plus for the franchise. The Hops may look for youth here should he again exhibit a tendency to lose time. This is a huge improvement on 2017 when Charlie Jackson, Mike Lamb, Tim LeBlanc and company hit around .225, and seemed to field about as well.

Third Base:
In 2017, Mario Vasquez ended his career playing only a dozen or so games, and retiring essentially at the All-Star break. By 2019, Terrence Sepkiechler took the position and wrung it out to dry, hitting a robust .316 with 24 dingers, and filling in at every other infield position if needed. He has shown consistency with over 100 RBIs this season and last, and at only 26, the future looks bright. Watch for Hai-Dong Joe in the minors, who may be the shortstop of the future if Sepkiechler stays at the hot corner.

Shortstop:
Takanori Higashi started close to 100 games at SS for the Hops, but like his double-play partner, Kaneko, suffered injuries that limited his playing time. When he was in, he was very, very good (.279). When he was out, a similar depth issue cropped up as the same cast of keystone characters filled in at short, leading to some consistency issues around the horn. The aforementioned Joe is the probable future at the position, but look for a Hops draft choice or trade to shore up the reserves. Gerard Leeder is a four star prospect according to Hops scouts, but at least three years away from the big leagues once he gets out of the International Complex.

Outfield:
This is the real new heart of the Hops, with a left to right with a sojourn into DH and other roles, makeup of Badry Makaev [Gold Glove] (.333/.377/.468, 17 HR), Carlos Avila (.328/.368/.457), Justin Davis (.300/.399/.469 14 HR), Hubert Muñoz (.256/.307/.425) and the star of the group [injured until mid-2020], Kyle Reader (.352/.424/.466, 112 runs). There is no comparison to 2017 here: Johnson, Caldwell and Turner/Thompson were the rangers then. Thompson and Turner are still in the system, and Dan Savage and Dan Lopez are stars in the making. Look for a deal from this level of depth, as great glove and .860 OPS hitter, Dan Rodriguez, could only manage 200 at bats for the major league team.


Rookie, Mal Tosewell [July 2014; Painter X3] experimenting with using only one brush variant, the Short Oil



Starting Pitching:

The ERA went from 5.97 in 2017 to 5.06 in 2019, and is going to get better. Henry McGowan went 13-10 with a 4.83 ERA in his first full season, and is just hitting his stride. Bill Baker won 14 in support of Mills’ team-leading 18. Mills will be replaced by JR Murphy and star-in-the-making, Mal Tosewell who debuted with a 3-0 record, 3 plus ERA and 19 K in 33 innings. With Georgie Levin tearing through the minor leagues, this could be a strong rotation (Baker, Tosewell, McGowan, Murphy and Pueblo/Levin) for years to come. This is a far cry from that forgettable 6 ERA rotation of 2017.

Bullpen:
Ed “Crime Spree” Downing improved from 25 saves in 2017 to 38 saves in 2019, with an ERA that went from 4.65 to 3.04. His support of “Oro” Mata, Bob Lortie, and company is an improvement over 2017, but still has room to improve even more with one of the following; Barrett, Downs, Reyes or Sandoval, needing to step up their game.

Outlook:
After a few more pints, the outlook couldn’t be better. Infield depth, bullpen and starting pitching are of some concern, but not so bad that the Hops need to make a lopsided deal. Look for the San Diegans to move an outfield piece to stop up one or more of these gaps, and the draft to continue to produce the likes of Reader, Makaev and Tosewell. Who knows, the next craft beer could be a playoff special.

Emerson Stiles, your correspondent

Tuesday, July 1, 2014

Carlos Avila: Rookie Sensation

In one short year, Carlos Avila, the number one draft choice for the San Diego Hops in June, 2018, has been the AAA player of the week once, and named to the AAA All-Star team. Now, he has emerged as a savior in San Diego, replacing the injured star, Kyle Reader, in the outfield and at the plate. His stellar rise to prominence is no accident. He is a confident young man, his skills honed in an excellent college career. However, nobody expected his ability to handle major league pitching would be this swift.

A quick look at his stats:
In his first forty games, he has batted 166 times, mashing 52 hits, including five doubles and five home-runs. He has crossed the plate 17 times, while driving in 24. His OPS stands a lick over .800.

In the field, he has split time between third base and center field, with a bit more pressure showing with a ZER in slight negatives at both positions. The very bright Ohio native is well aware of his shortcomings, and can be seen before every game taking extra infield and outfield practice.

There is no doubt that San Diego would have dropped out of contention in a surprising September finish had Avila not been brought up to join Justin Davis, Badry Makaev and Terrence Sepkiechler atop the Hops' order.

Carlos Avila, CF/3b, San Diego Hops #29, Corel Painter x3; July 1, 2014